How Quickly Can the World Move from Coal to Nuclear?

Elliott Morse takes a look at the issue here:

Table 1. – [IEA] Energy Projections, Current Policies

Fuel	2007	2030	07-30 % Change
Oil	4,090	5,104	25%
Coal	3,248	4,934	52%
Gas	2,526	3,743	48%
Nuclear	722	851	18%
Hydro	241	340	41%
Other	1,203	2,042	70%
Total (MTOE)*	12,029	17,014	41%

Source: IEA

* Million tons of oil equivalent (MTOE), is a standardizing measure for energy; one million tons of oil equivalent is the energy generated by burning 1,000,000 metric tons of crude oil.

To meet this growth in demand, fossil fuels (oil, coal, and gas) are expected to grow most rapidly. Coal use is projected to grow by 52%, with its share increasing from 26.5% to 28.8%, unless major policy changes occur. Under this scenario, the number of railroad cars loaded with coal leaving mines every day would increase from 225,687 to 343,044.

Table 5. – China Electricity, by Fuel, 2007

China	Electricity (GWh)	Share %
Production from:
- coal	2,656,434	81%
- hydro	485,264	15%
- nuclear	62,130	2%
- oil	33,650	1%
- gas	30,539	1%
- wind	8,790	0%
- biomass	2,310	0%
- other	116	0%
Total Production	3,279,233	100%

Quadrupling its nuclear capacity would mean being able to produce 248,520 GWh per year. That increase, 186,390 GWh, would require increasing its capacity by 21GWe. Using US$2 billion as the GWe cost (some estimates for 1 GWe in China are as low as US$1.5 billion), this will cost only US$42 billion. This should be no problem for China.

But let’s consider something somewhat more ambitious: could China replace half its electricity generated by coal with nuclear? That would mean increasing nuclear production by 1,328,217 GWh annually. That would take an additional 151 GWe of capacity. At US$2 billion per GWe, that would cost US$302 billion. With a GDP of US$5 trillion annually, this investment would also seem feasible over a couple of decades.

The joint study.....by the Nuclear Energy Agency of the OECD and the International Energy Agency gave the impression that most of the concerns with nuclear are manageable. But there are extraordinarily complex logistical and regulatory problems that still must be faced. China is in a much better position to deal with these problems than is a democracy.


Source: SeekingAlpha

China has already begun building new nuclear reactors. But then, China finds it easier to deal with its trial lawyers and political activists -- it executes them if they cause trouble. In the US, trial lawyers and political / environmental activists can tie a multi-billion dollar project up in the courts for years, draining the resources of investors dry.

In other words, the faux environmentalists who are blocking nuclear power are making it necessary to continue mining and burning coal! But no one ever said "environmentalists" were very intelligent. Dogmatic, pompous, corrupt, self-serving, yes. Intelligent? Not so much.