Heaven is a Long-Shot Gamble

Image Source (PDF)

Asteroid Apophis, a 390 m Aten asteroid (see graphic above), has a rendezvous with near-Earth space on 13 April 2036. We will not really know how close a rendezvous Apophis will have with Earth in 2036, until its 2029 near-Earth fly-by. Earth-crossing asteroids such as Apophis represent both hazard and opportunity. The hazard of being struck by a mountain-sized rock-from-space should be evident. The opportunity perhaps less so.

Suppose that the chance of Apophis striking planet Earth were 30% or greater. That would be a significant level of threat from above. Would such a risk justify an expensive space intercept mission, to attempt to deflect Apophis to a safer orbital distance? I would think so. Yet, there are potentially devastating, but earth-bound, dangers lurking even closer in time than 2036, which have much higher odds of occurring than the current odds for Apophis to contact Earth.

The earth-bound catastrophe being created by human governments is not dramatic enough, not dazzling enough to warrant the attention of the gatekeepers of the human mind--news media and popular media outlets. And certainly government officials want no part of exposing the nightmare they are inexorably bringing down on the heads of the citizens they are supposed to be serving and protecting. But there are ways to avoid catastrophe, both from the threat from above and the threat from below.

We can avoid danger from Earth-crossing asteroids by establishing an active and expanding infrastructure in space. If we are already in space, we can build intercept missions to Near Earth Asteroids (NEAs) at our leisure--for purposes of exploring, mining, or deflecting. The value of a single NEA, Eros, is estimated to be at least $ 20-30 Trillion! That is for one asteroid, albeit one somewhat larger than Apophis. Just a few such asteroids could easily make up the budgetary deficits of any number of profligate Earthly governments.

In fact, there is enough value in the solar systems asteroid belt to provide each citizen of Earth with approximately $100 Billion--more wealth than any single super-rich billionaire currently possesses. Not that the wealth of the asteroids will ever be distributed equally to everyone, no. No more than was the wealth from any of a large number of gold-rushes, silver-rushes, diamond-rushes, or large scale rushes to other mineral resources including oil and gas equally distributed. The wealth of the asteroids will go to those who can get there, establish a claim (for now just being there will do that), mine the valuables, get the goods to market, and sell to the highest bidder.

And that is precisely what we are involved in--a NEA "gold rush"--although not many people are aware of it at this time. We do occasionally hear that we are in "The Next Space Race", being driven by hungry young billionaires and entrepreneurs.

Alaska serves as an excellent analogy. Once thought of as worthless territory (in 1867 William Seward, America’s secretary of state, was criticised for paying $7.2m to the Russians for Alaska, known then as “Seward’s folly”), Alaska has since become a trillion-dollar economy. The transport infrastructure has made Alaska’s gold, oil, timber and fishing industries super-profitable. The same will hold true for space. A 0.5km (0.3-mile) diameter asteroid is worth more than $20 trillion in nickel, iron and platinum-group metals.

Aside from the economic incentives, technology is reaching a critical point, making space exploration an inevitable component of human progress. Moore’s Law has given us exponential growth in computing technology, which in turn has led to exponential growth in nearly every other technological industry. Breakthroughs in rocket propulsion will allow us to go farther, faster and more safely into space.

...Recently, the X Prize Foundation joined with Google to announce a $30m Google Lunar X Prize, to be paid out to the first teams able to land on the lunar surface, rove for 500 metres and send back two video/photographic moon-casts. Amazingly, within the first two weeks following the announcement, we received over 190 requests from 25 countries from prospective teams looking for registration materials. This is the new generation of entrepreneurs who will reinvent space exploration the same way that Apple and Dell reinvented the computer industry. ___Economist

Most people think the goal of these hungry young entrepreneurs is space tourism, space hotels, and other local space fun and games. But with the stakes as high as $20 Trillion (!) for one asteroid, something tells me that a lot of these young guns may be secretly gunning for a bigger long-shot gamble than shooting a few overweight tourists into suborbital space.

Getting into space is expensive. Moving mining equipment into a matching orbit with an NEA, landing, setting up, and staying for years to mine and perhaps process the materials on site, will cost many billions of dollars--assuming you can acquire the necessary technical expertise to accomplish the task. That means dealing with financing organisations, insurance companies, and space lawyers. Getting mined materials back to market may be a greater challenge than getting to the NEA in the first place. Then you can expect to face a wide array of lawsuits based upon international space law, which is still being hammered out.

In the end, the greatest obstacle to achieving super-wealth from the asteroids may be in being allowed to keep the wealth after returning to Earth. Certain to face lawsuits from NGOs, Earth governments, UN agencies, and private parties, where are the entrepreneurs who are willing to risk everything for an uncertain chance to keep the hard-won loot?

Mainstream corporations would want strong assurances of protection from lawsuits by their governments. But in a realm where world courts, inter-governmental, and international non-governmental agencies lead the legal charge, single governments can be quite limited. Which means that many early-generation space miners might choose to establish and work with a space-based economy that does not fall under the authority of Earth's United Nations or any of its government members.

How could such an economy start? Incrementally, and with a lot of luck to those who succeed. The idea would be to first start mining the more likely and accessible NEAs. Then using the wealth and the mass from the NEAs, the more successful "space 49ers" work toward the main asteroid belt--and the massive riches waiting there. Any long term permanent space enterprises have to eventually be able to pay their own way--or at least be lucrative enough to attract ready financing on good terms. The alternative is the "long-shot gamble."

Such a space-based infrastructure--independent of the UN and Earth governments--would have to be very resourceful, ingenious, and even disreputable. They will have to be skilled with improvising rocket propellant and reaction mass, space robotics, orbital maneuvers, life support systems, and quick thinking in emergencies, among other things necessary for survival and acquiring mineral wealth. Almost every step of the way from Earth to the main belt would be a long shot gamble. But once in possession of that type of wealth and resources, the Earth would be in no position to dictate terms.

Think of it as a "The Moon is a Harsh Mistress" scenario, except in the main asteroid belt instead of on the moon. What type of person is capable of throwing the dice that far? Not George Bush. Not Barack Obama. Not Kevin Rudd or Al Gore. None of the people who occupy the news pages of most media outlets have even a fraction of the substance necessary for such a play as is described here.

There's still a place in the world for a gambler. But to get to heaven, only long-shot gamblers need apply.

Previously published at Al Fin blog

Lethal Meme-Complex: Multicultural Dogma

Examples of memes are tunes, ideas, catch-phrases, clothes fashions, ways of making pots or of building arches. Just as genes propagate themselves in the gene pool by leaping from body to body via sperms or eggs, so memes propagate themselves in the meme pool by leaping from brain to brain via a process which, in the broad sense, can be called imitation. If a scientist hears, or reads about, a good idea, he passed it on to his colleagues and students. He mentions it in his articles and his lectures. If the idea catches on, it can be said to propagate itself, spreading from brain to brain.___RichardDawkins

A lethal meme, analogous to a lethal gene, is a meme that lends a certain level of mortal vulnerability to the society or culture that is parasitised by the lethal meme. Meme-complexes are even more sophisticated than simple memes, and lethal meme-complexes produce more wide-ranging lethal effects to entire cultures and civilisations. Multiculturalism is one such meme-complex.

The idea that all cultures are equal in merit and deserving respect, an idea devoid of any historical perspective, could be seriously proposed and adopted only in western liberal democracies. And logically such an idea meant only one thing, the diminution of the West and its achievements in comparison to other cultures.

Multiculturalism institutionalized as a policy, run by self-perpetuating bureaucracies and sustained by entrepreneurs of a growing multicultural industry, became an easy ride for its proponents and clients.

Immigrants were not required to embrace the West's culture and complex history; and the West did not have to strain itself in instructing immigrants on the need or importance of embracing it, warts and all.

Multiculturalism worked so long as the illusion of cultural harmony could be maintained.

But once the sham of equality got exposed by the heat of Islamist violence -- once it became undeniable that a culture in which a woman, for instance, can assert her individual freedom without fear is not at par with a culture where a woman's worth is less than that of a man -- multiculturalism as an idea was dead.

Historians will note a period of confusion followed the death of multiculturalism before the West asserted its ideals of freedom and democracy, and moved on. ___TorontoSun

The West is confronted by more enemies than multiculturalism within, and Islamism without. The West is also confronted with China, Russia, and an unholy alliance of corrupt thugocracies that span the globe.

One thing is certain. As long as the killing meme-complex of multiculturalism is taught as dogma in the universities and lower schools of the West, the death of the West will continue to hang in the balance.

Men and women who love the hard-fought ideals of the West such as

• freedom of economy, thought, assembly, and religion
• limited, representative government
• individual rights of self-determination and self-defense
• separation of ideology and state
• the freedom to conceive and work toward a marvelous future
• and many more ideals of widespread non-violence, self-determination and well-being

will need to make themselves heard, leaving no doubt as to their intention and ability to defeat all enemies of these ideals. The West cannot be weak and passive to these threats from within and without. Never surrender these ideals.

Meme-Gene Coevolution PDF and streaming
Dawkins on Memes
The Meme Meme

Cellulosic Ethanol Experiment Goes Dangerously Wrong: Environmental and Cultural Catastrophe

Apocalyptic Newswire: Northern Ontario 29 January 2008
As far East as the Maritimes and as far west as Saskatoon, trees are beginning to drip ethanol. The recent plague that started at the lumber camps and maple syrup plants of Northern Ontario seems to be spreading south, east, and west from the source. As far south as Rochester, New York, drunken parties appear to be centered around groves of trees.

"All you gotta do is stick a tap in and hold a glass under it. You can drink it right out of the tree!" stated Jill Steinwick, pictured above.

Apocalyptic Newswire has finally traced the epidemic to its source. A foolhardy band of cellulosic ethanol researchers unleashed the catastrophic plague on the forests of the world.

"It was all an accident," explains GreenMe's chief researcher Gwyneth Malbow. "I recently visited ZeaChem's lab in California, and "borrowed" some of their new microbes. I wanted to see what would happen if I innoculated a few sugar maples with the bug. I never expected things to go so wrong!"

When questioned about the organism, ZeaChem's President was very tight-lipped.

"Our bug is very tough," said Jim Imbler, ZeaChem's president and chief executive officer......source

Imbler refused to comment further on the incident other than to say that Malbow's experiment was done without the knowledge of himself or anyone at his company. Ethanol scientists are speculating that there may be no way to stop the organism from spreading.

"So far, the trees themselves do not appear to be damaged. The problem is that world governments will be unable to collect taxes on alcohol when every tree is a brewery," explained Science Advisor Ronica Leary in Ottawa. "Besides, wherever the trees are dripping grog, no one is reporting to work. Productivity is way down."

The UN Security Council was called to emergency session to deal with the emergency. Already, rumours of the organism reaching Europe in a shipment of elm saplings is causing panic on world stock markets.

Reports that trees are being destroyed en masse within all Muslim countries appear to be false, but accounts of suicide bombers screaming "allahu akbar," then blowing themselves up inside groves of palm trees, have been substantiated.

Count on Apocalyptic Newswire to keep you advised on this developing catastrophe.



Originally published at Al Fin
Original work of satire by Al Fin. Any unauthorised reproduction of this material must be attributed to the source.

What China Will Do to Win

China poses as a rising star in the world of commerce, industry, technology and science. But China's recent stock market scare reveals how closely China's success hangs upon financial and technological achievements in the west. If China were unable to steal, counterfeit, pirate, and reverse-engineer superior achievements of technology and science in the west, how many decades behind the west would China be?

The government believes that, in the next few years, China will surpass South Korea in technical abilities, and Germany in GDP. While China is still a minor player in the world of military high tech, the government is putting lots of money and effort into changing this. Expensive, and long term, efforts are being made to produce high tech items like jet engines, missiles and military electronics. At the current rate of progress, Chinese military technology will match that of the United States in a decade or so.

Strategy Page

In a mad rush to surpass the west, China is poisoning its air and water, destroying and depleting its topsoil, stealing from its trading partners, sending poisoned toys,food,and other merchandise overseas, misrepresenting the size and health of its banks and state enterprises, and becoming the world's leading destructive state computer hacker and possible currency counterfeiter (via N. Korea).

...there is a long record in China of sending government-directed missions overseas to buy or shamelessly steal the best civil and military technology available, reverse engineer it, and build an industrial complex that supports the growth of China as a commercial and military power....The allegations against Chen Jin, of Jiaotong University in Shanghai, are an example of the entrepreneurial approach people take toward industrial espionage and intellectual property theft in China. Chen returned to China after earning a Ph.D. at the University of Texas at Austin. In 2003, China treated Chen like a national hero for inventing China's first signal processing microchip. Last week, Jiaotong University dismissed him, and Chen stands accused of hiring flocks of migrant workers with good manual dexterity and great eyesight to scratch the name "Motorola" off chips and etch in the name of Chen's company, "Hanxin."

Source

Is the government involved in Chinese counterfeiting? What do you think?

The second point is equally important. The piracy and counterfeiting that exists in China is largely the result of a tacit government policy to allow such practices to flourish. China has a relatively comprehensive set of antipiracy statutes on its books. However, little or no enforcement exists, and what fines and punishments do exist serve as only weak deterrents.

The reason for China's tacit sanctioning of widespread counterfeiting and piracy is that the Chinese government is well aware of two things. Counterfeit and pirated goods sold domestically help keep inflation low, and selling these goods internationally creates jobs and export revenues.___Source

Some of the counterfeit exports being sent overseas from China present a significant hazard to the end users.

Counterfeit high-tech items are a growing business, and a growing danger. In addition to computer gear, auto and aircraft components are also being faked. Some aircraft and auto accidents have been traced to the fakes, which makes it a public safety issue. But with the Department of Defense installing counterfeit computer components, it becomes a national security issue. There's also the fear that the Chinese, or some other hostile nation, might get their hands on real computer components, and replace some of the chips with modified ones that will make government networks easier to hack. Yes, it just gets worse.

Strategy Page

China is destabilizing the world's security.

China’s goal is to dominate in all sectors – from the lowest, most labor-intensive sectors to the highest and most advanced technological sectors – as quickly as possible. To accomplish these goals, China must have access to advanced technology. FDI gives China this access. Once the advanced technology is introduced into China, China gains access to the technology. Some of this access is lawful, but much of it is through unauthorized copying, theft, and counterfeiting, all of which allows China to obtain technology transfer without the payment of fees.___Source

China's recent moves into the third world, including Africa, should raise eybrows--particularly regarding the tendency of Chinese consumer exports to be poisoned.

The upcoming Beijing Olympics are a source of pride for the Chinese CCP, but amid all the other rampant illegitimacy, is China hosting a counterfeit Olympics? There is significant international concern over the safety of food and water to be provided by the host country for Olympic athletes and guests. I wonder if the Chinese people themselves are wondering about the future safety of Chinese food and water? No, they're too busy worrying about the present.

China wants to be taken seriously by everyone, including the world's superpower. To accomplish this, China intends to gouge, steal, lie, cheat, copy, counterfeit, hack, intimidate, subvert, proliferate nukes, reverse engineer, spy, and bluster its way to the top.

In the process of its grand strategy, China's people and environment are being poisoned, while the world's environment is sullied. China's pro-proliferation policies and close friendships with state sponsors of terrorism such as Iran and Venezuela, suggests long term plans to destabilize the islands of prosperity within both the developed and developing worlds.

Nothing about the method of China's rise suggests the intent to become a responsible world co-citizen. Nothing indicates a will to create a better world, with prosperity and security for all. Instead we see a Chinese CCP hell-bent to achieve superiority and hegemony in every area--while destroying its own ecology and the ecologies of East Asia. There is nothing admirable or encouraging about China's gutter tactics, its quasi-criminal methods of achievement.

China's CCP government will do anything to win--including destroying its own country, and half the world with it. Is this what George Soros and half the pandering world leadership at Davos and the UN also wants?

The Great Gigolo Roundup from Heidi Cullen, Weather Channel Babe With Hidden Passions

Guest Editorial by Anna Roseannadanna

Weather Channel climatologist, Heidi Cullen has plans to open an eco-friendly gigolo ranch for women in Nevada. She has felt the need for such a facility for many years, and presumably thanks to global warming, she is now in a financial position to build the ranch. I expect that all the proceeds from the ranch will go to fighting global warming.

The Stud Farm will be “an exclusive resort, and I’ll make it really nice like the Beverly Hills Hotel”, says Heidi. She’s reportedly been looking into green building options, because she doesn’t want “anything polluting”. She believes that women will come to her resort as they would for any getaway- “for bachelorette and birthday parties…or simply because they have the time and the money and they want to get a manicure, a pedicure, and a shag”, she says.

The parrot-loving madam says she’ll run her Stud Farm on wind power because “there’s a need for it”, refers to herself as a “treehugger”, and seems genuinely concerned that her beloved parrots were born into such a polluted world- to which her father replies that “the world is a beautiful garden. It’s just, people are destroying it”.

Tree Hugger

Producer off-camera: Roseanna! That is not Heidi Cullen! It's Heidi Fleiss, the infamous "madame to the stars."

Roseanna: Hmmm? Nevermind!

Anna Roseannadanna channeled by Eco-sex enterprises, a subsidiary of Al Gore Industries.

Originally published at Al Fin, You Sexy Thing!

The Sun: Masker of the Earth's Deskiny?

It's not easy bein' me
Masker of me own deskiny
And I hates responsibiliky
It's not easy bein' me Popeye

The Sun gives us life-sustaining warmth and light. Yet the sun also bombards our space with deadly x-rays, gamma rays, high energy electrons, and atomic nuclei--which if not for Earth's atmosphere and magnetic field would kill us all. But wait--the sun's solar wind and magnetic field also shields the earth from dangerous radiation coming from outside the solar system. The Sun is clearly up to both good and bad. What else is the sun doing, that we should know about?

Recently, astrophysicists have become aware of the sun's interaction with the "global atmospheric electric current," and have started looking at the weather and climate implications.

Tinsley 2007 ... [demonstrates] the change in the ionospheric coupling from the solar wind that induces changes of the global electrical circuit ...

Reports of a variety of short-term meteorological responses to changes in the global electric circuit associated with a set of disparate inputs are analyzed. The meteorological responses consist of changes in cloud cover, atmospheric temperature, pressure, or dynamics. All of these are found to be responding to changes in a key linking agent, that of the downward current density, Jz, that flows from the ionosphere through the troposphere to the surface (ocean and land). As it flows through layer clouds, Jz generates space charge in conductivity gradients at the upper and lower boundaries, and this electrical charge is capable of affecting the microphysical interactions between droplets and both ice-forming nuclei and condensation nuclei.

...Thus, we propose that mechanisms responding to Jz are a candidate for explanations of sun–weather–climate correlations on multidecadal to millenial timescales, as well as on the day-to-day timescales analyzed here.

Outside the Cube

Scientists from the US, Europe, and other parts of the world are beginning to pay much more attention to the Earth-Sun interaction--and what it may involve.

Convection cells, made of plasma, an ionised and highly variable gas, are found at altitudes of hundreds kilometres over the polar caps. Their behaviour pattern is intimately linked to the response of the Earth’s magnetic environment to solar activity.

Although Earth is largely protected from the hazards of interplanetary space by the magnetosphere and atmosphere, they don't form an isolated bubble.

...One way to monitor this interaction is to study the convection cells. In the region, called the high-latitude ionosphere where they are located, the behaviour of the plasma cells strongly depends on the response of the magnetosphere to the orientation of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF, an extension of the solar magnetic field, carried by the solar wind). This means that the behaviour of polar cap convection cells is a good tracer of the Sun-Earth connection.

ESA

Keep in mind that several mechanisms for sun-earth climate interaction are being proposed. These are somewhat different from Svensmark's solar wind/cosmic ray hypothesis on cloud formation. The astrophysicist community within NASA is said to be seriously divided over the question of the extent of solar variability influencing Earth's climatic trends. This could get interesting.

The following links provide some elementary scientific background about the interaction of solar radiation with Earth's global atmospheric electrical current.

http://arxiv.org/ftp/physics/papers/0506/0506077.pdf

http://www.utdallas.edu/physics/pdf/Tin_rev.pdf

http://www.sgo.fi/SPECIAL/Contributions/Makarova.pdf

The TAO of Oil by Leonardo Maugeri

Only around 2,000 new field wildcats (wells made for exploring the presence of hydrocarbons in the subsoil) have been drilled in the entire Persian Gulf region since the inception of its oil activity, as against more than 1 million in the United States. TAO

Leonardo Maugeri's 2006 book, "The Age of Oil (TAO)," is an indispensable look at the past, present, and future of the role of petroleum. Written in two parts, TAO first looks at the human history of oil along with current events of oil. The second and final section of TAO looks at the question of whether the world is at or near "peak oil."

In April 1977, the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) delivered a highly influential report stating that the growth of world oil demand would soon outpace production because of constraints on OPEC potential and the impending peak of Soviet Production. By the 1980s, the report argued, oil would be scarce and very expensive....

Maugeri points to three categories of reserves used when referring to future oil reserves.

• Proven Reserves---defined as the amount of oil and gas in place in known reservoirs that can be estimated with "reasonable certainty" to be commercially recoverable under current economic conditions....profitable recovery of at least 90 percent.
• Probable Reserves---the probability of profitable recovery falls to 50 percent
• Possible Reserves---profitable probability of recovery no less than 10 percent.

Maugeri points out that:

During the last 25 years more than 70% of exploration has taken place in the United States and Canada, mature areas that probably hold only 3% of the world's reserves of crude. The Middle East, on the other hand, has been the scene of only 3% of global exploration, even though it harbors 70% of the earth's reserves. In the Persian Gulf, holding 65% of the region's reserves, fewer than 100 exploration wells were drilled between 1995 and 2004. During the same period, 15,700 such wells were drilled in the U.S. Forbes

Future advances in the technologies of production, and refinement--as well as improved efficiencies of utilisation--have the potential to move reserves from the "possible" and "probable" categories up to the "proven reserves" classification. Future advances in discovery technology have the potential to expand all reserves significantly.

A recent declaration by the International Energy Agency that world petroleum production had peaked in 2006--had passed "peak oil"--was based on an analysis of world petroleum production, without considering either world petroleum reserves or seriously considering the many reasons why world petroleum production might peak from time to time without signaling any type of "peak oil." (Like the IPCC, the part of the IEA that produces reports touching on politics, eg "peak oil," may well have been infiltrated by bureaucrats and contributors with a fixed agenda.)

Maugeri concludes his book with a look at "resource nationalism," the gloomy reality that most of the world's known conventional petroleum resources exist in territories controlled by dictators and autocrats--Russia, Venezuela, Saudi Arabia, Iran, Libya, etc. For this reason, oil prices are likely to remain quite high--unless market forces arising from new discoveries and production outside the autocratic zone force the dictators of oil to compete once again.

Remember, nationalised resources do not tend to attract the latest technology in discovery, production, and refinement. That means that a lot of resources remain in the ground.

Despite its long history as an oil producing region, the Persian Gulf is still relatively virgin in terms of exploration. Only around 2,000 new field wildcas (wells made for exploring the presence of hydrocarbons in the subsoil) have been drilled in the entire Persian Gulf region since the inception of its oil activity, as against more than 1 million in the United States. p. 221 TAO

More from Maugeri at National Geographic, Forbes, and Foreign Affairs.

Charles Darwin's Neuroplasticity

Thanks to Alvaro at SharpBrains for this fascinating peek into how Charles Darwin's thinking changed over his adult life.

I have said that in one respect my mind has changed during the
last twenty or thirty years. Up to the age of thirty, or beyond
it, poetry of many kinds, such as the works of Milton, Gray,
Byron, Wordsworth, Coleridge, and Shelley, gave me great
pleasure, and even as a schoolboy I took intense delight in
Shakespeare, especially in the historical plays. I have also
said that formerly pictures gave me considerable, and music very
great delight. But now for many years I cannot endure to read a
line of poetry: I have tried lately to read Shakespeare, and
found it so intolerably dull that it nauseated me. I have also
almost lost my taste for pictures or music. Music generally sets
me thinking too energetically on what I have been at work on,
instead of giving me pleasure. I retain some taste for fine
scenery, but it does not cause me the exquisite delight which it
formerly did. On the other hand, novels which are works of the
imagination, though not of a very high order, have been for years
a wonderful relief and pleasure to me, and I often bless all
novelists.

Darwin's Autobiography

Darwin's own writing style apparently changed over the years--to his own satisfaction.

Formerly I used to think about my sentences before writing them
down; but for several years I have found that it saves time to
scribble in a vile hand whole pages as quickly as I possibly can,
contracting half the words; and then correct deliberately.
Sentences thus scribbled down are often better ones than I could
have written deliberately.

ibid

That is a technique that I have found useful as well, even in short comments. The first sentence I write is often useful as a summary, after I work through the ideas a little better. It helps to put the ideas out in the open first for modification and reconstruction.

Darwin's brain experienced neuroplasticity and modification from the "overuse" of some faculties at the expense of other faculties--such as appreciation of poetry and music. His observations of the natural and human worlds may have gained a certain rigour and precision in this process of "selective cultivation" of cortical real estate.

If Darwin had been given the opportunity to relive his life, and thus was able to carry out his plan-in-hindsight of listening to music and reading poetry at least once a week--would his scientific writings have been as clean and precise? An interesting question.

While the neuroplasticity of both motor and sensory cortex following strokes, other denervation, and amputation, are well documented, the neuroplasticity of the associative cortex--prefrontal lobes etc--still requires study to delimit the possibilities. The old saying "you are what you think" is likely to be proven truer than many people would like.

You can find Darwin's works free online here or here.

Mind the Enchantment

The human mind is subject to various forms of enchantment. Not a magical enchantment, but more like a trance, sometimes pleasant, sometimes not.

Because our minds are "self organised", they are subject to falling into distinctly different states, at particular "bifurcations."An illustration of this phenomenan is the "bistability" of particular images. Following the series of images above, can you say exactly where the transition occurs? What if you saw only that one image?

But the deeper you dive into the mechanisms of consciousness, the larger the number of possible mind states, so that bistability becomes tristability and so on. Just the single topic of synaptic plasticity quickly acquires a complexity to confound most scientists.

Hypnosis takes advantage of the inherent ambiguity of consciousness, and "adjusts the weighting" of various competing states of mind. Since mind is inherently a self-organizing, ongoing trance-like process, it is often likened to "riding the wave," or staying on the "bucking bronco." From the moment of waking to the release of sleep, that "blinking cursor" of consciousness compels us to provide answers and solutions, even to unknown or nonexistent problems.

For anyone who is curious about some of the underlying neurophilosophy of consciousness, I suggests looking over this article by Edelman and Tononi--two prolific and respected students of consciousness. Or look over this overview of Models of Consciousness from Scholarpedia.

Understanding human consciousness is difficult enough. But a lot of people wish to create intelligence in machines. This dream goes back hundreds, if not thousands, of years. But since the computer age beginning in the 1940s, multiple generations of ingenious scientists of mind and computation have dashed their skulls against the wall of computational complexity (not to mention a lack of understanding of the complexity of human cognition or intentionality).

Each person experiences a consciousness of an enchanted mind. Not a mind of equations and computations. Rather a mind of metaphor and narrative. An entranced mind where real world expediencies intrude on waking dreams. Complex trances of strange attractors and slippery bistable conscious surfaces.

There would be no point in trying to emulate all of that in a machine. Not unless that is the only way we can find to create a conscious machine. Perhaps it is better to settle for machines that only seem conscious or intelligent, as viewed by a simple Turing test. After all, we are only looking for help in making better decisions and devising a better world for smarter, healthier, longer-lived people.

We may be entranced, but why burden our machines with all of that? It is our trance that we wish to enjoy far into the future, not the trance of a machine.

Originally posted at Al Fin

Last Bastions of Competence: #1 The Military

Regular readers of Al Fin blog are familiar with the concept of psychological neoteny. The societies of western developed nations and particularly North American societies, have adopted a method of child-rearing that results in the perpetual incompetence of an idle adolescence. By age-segregating children in classrooms of indoctrination, by removing children from all responsibility and exposure to the adult world of work, western societies are creating entire generations of incompetent and narcissistic know-nothings and do-nothings.

But there are notable refuges from the world of perpetual incompetence and irrelevance--one of which is the military. In the military there is no escape from responsibility, and no excuse for not developing the competencies of your current rating and assignment. You are thrown in with persons of all ages, backgrounds, religions, ethnicities, and experiences. You are expected to learn how to do your job, and to do it professionally.

The modern military is as much about disaster relief, and providing order for rebuilding a devastated region, as it is about fighting and killing an enemy. Military members are encouraged to improve themselves, and many gain degrees while in the service, through online courses.

Joel, who is stationed in Baghdad with the 3rd Brigade, 2nd Infantry Stryker Brigade Combat Team, earned his degree through online courses and hopes to be able to watch the ceremony through an online link-up.

"A lot of it has involved slipping in homework in between missions and rest time. But there's always the unforeseen, though," Joel, 36, said Wednesday in a phone interview from Iraq. "Taking courses online gives me a sense of normalcy. ... As one class completes, I'm that much closer to being home."

According to military publications, more than 40,000 soldiers in Afghanistan and Iraq have enrolled in online college courses.

Denver Post

By acquiring real world skills in a genuine world atmosphere, while still being able to earn credits and degrees online, members of the military are able to bypass the academic lobotomy that millions of on-campus university students receive every year.

While their home societies are preparing their civilian cohorts for perpetual incompetence, military members are seeing much of the world firsthand, and working side by side with people from other cultures for both peacekeeping, disaster relief, and making war.

Military members who do not make a career of the military often join reserve units or national guard units, to combine their civilian lives with continued service to their country. Career military members often retire by age 38, at which time many of them join city, county, state, or federal agencies of law enforcement or other active civil service agencies that require competent workers.

Competence is rare in a neotenous society. You have to look for it.

Originally published in Abu Al Fin.

Are You Competent for What May Come?

Because, personally, I seriously doubt that you are--if you are a typical psychologically neotenised, academically lobotomised, child of the western world.

You might try the "Jericho Test." If you have not seen the episodes of the doomed television show Jericho, go here and watch at least the first few episodes. Imagine yourself in such a circumstance. Would you be useful. How?

I recall sitting in an insurance office in a new town, transferring my policy to my new location. My young, attractive female agent was processing my paperwork and chatting with two co-workers who had gathered around the desk out of boredom. Somehow they were discussing a collapse of civilisation and what they could do to survive. My agent made the offhand comment, "at least I could work as a whore."

But there is only so much need for whores, and some of the male survivors of a holocaust would not treat their whores very kindly. So the rest of you might start thinking about other possibilities, while you have a little time. Particularly the college professors among you, who--if you pardon me for saying so--are almost certainly particularly useless in an emergency (unless your training is in applied engineering, technology, or biomedical sciences).

Your politics, religion, and ideology will probably be irrelevant, as long as you are not a psychopath. It is your useful skills that will count.

People always assume that things will continue as they are, in a straight line extrapolation of current trends. People are always wrong about that. Most people need shock therapy to acknowledge things that might go wrong, and to be motivated to prepare.

No matter how busy you are, you still have time to take steps to make you and your family more survivable.


Everyone needs a stockpile of clean water, food, and basic hygienic and first aid supplies. If you depend on a medicine such as insulin, you should have extra medication on hand, and rotate it to maintain the expiration date. If your vital medicines require refrigeration, you should have a way to power a small refrigerator off the electrical grid. (generator with fuel, solar panels with batteries, etc.)

There are many important things to think about, in connection with surviving a massive natural or man-made disaster. The Al Fin blog sidebar has an entire section of links dealing with these issues, about three fourths of the way down. As an added one-time-only bonus, here is an online book on surviving a nuclear war.

Watch the first few episodes of Jericho. Think about it.
Related

The Colour of Crime: Murder in Black and White

Perhaps you have heard of a horrifying crime that occurred in Wichita, Kansas, in December of 2000. The crime has been labeled "The Wichita Massacre," but the horrific details of the crime must be read to be believed.

Most of you will have never heard of this crime. The level of hatred toward the victims revealed by the methods of the perpetrators, is reminiscent of primitive tribal genocide of Palestinians against Israelis, or actions of other violent third world tribes and clans.

But these crimes were committed by the Carr brothers, seen below, against total strangers, in a small city located in a US state that is known for its strong abolitionist views prior to the US civil war. What was the motive???
I have given this Kansas atrocity some thought, and felt that it was an aberration within developed countries such as the US. So it came as a great shock to me to hear about a fairly recent similar crime committed in the small US city of Knoxville, Tennessee.
The rather average looking couple pictured above were described by family members as a “clean-cut and faithful couple—good kids.” What happened to them was not at all average, and not the least bit expected.

The group of five defendants pictured below reveals nothing in their snapshots to suggest the viciousness that was unleashed upon the above couple, out of the blue.

What was their motive? Again, such violence may be commonplace in third world vendettas, and organised crime vendettas. But these crimes had nothing at all to do with such "rational" mindless violence. No, these were total strangers who were chosen for this debased and inhuman violence.
Actually, the most outrageous thing about these crimes is the conspiracy of silence by the US national press, not to report what had happened.

The entire world knows what happened to James Byrd and Matthew Shepherd. News coverage of these vicious crimes was exhaustive and unrelenting for years, and are still frequently referred to by civil rights and gay rights activists.

One may be excused for believing that a high level of black on white violent crime does not exist in the US, or that blacks are more frequently the victims of interracial crime than whites. Such is hardly the case--although the US media appears to be united in avoiding an exposure of the true magnitude and asymmetry of interracial crime.

But it is not the magnitude of black on white violent crime that worries me the most. It is not even the silence of the media when it should be confronting this urgent and divisive problem that causes me the most unease. No, the thing that worries me the most is something quite obvious, but never stated. I will let you think about it for a while.