Friday, March 09, 2007

Can It Be True? Interesting "Below the Radar" Story

WARNING: Information in this posting comes from unconfirmed sources. If new informatin shows that this paper by Ernst-Georg Beck is a hoax, that information will be posted as soon as available. The IPCC is already guilty of using bad data (hockey-stick) and cherry picking data. If this paper is true, the accusation of fraud would not be too extreme.

An interesting scientific paper still in peer review is discussed by An Englishman's Castle and Greenie Watch.

Ernst-Georg Beck, of Merian-Schule Freiburg, claims that accurate historical measurements of CO2 levels in the air contradict the IPCC's reports. Instead of a rapidly increasing CO2 level from pre-industrial to modern times, Beck says that:
1. There is no constant exponential rising CO2 -concentration since preindustrial times but a varying CO2-content of air following the climate. E.G. around 1940 there was a
maximum of CO2 of at least 420 ppm, before 1875 there was also a maximum.
2. Historical air analysis by chemical means do not prove a preindustrial CO2 -concentration of 285 ppm (IPCC),as modern climatology postulates. In contrast the average in the 19th century in northern hemisphere is 321 ppm and in the 20th century 338ppm.
3. Todays CO2 value of. 380 ppm, which is considered as threatening has been known several times in the last 200 years, in the 20 th century around 1942 and before 1870 in the 19th century. The maximum CO2 -concentration in the 20th century roses to over 420 pmm in 1942.
4. Accurate measurements of CO2 air gas contents had been done from 1857 by chemical methods with a systematical error of maximal 3%. These results were ignored reconstructing the CO2 concentration of air in modern warm period.
5. Callendar and Keeling were the most important founders of the modern greenhouse theory (IPCC) beside Arrhenius. Literature research confirmed that they ignored a big part of available technical papars and selected only a few values to get a validation of their hypothesis of fuel burning induced rise of CO2 in air. Furthermore these authors discussed and reproduced the few selected historic results by chemical methods in a faulty way and propagated an unfounded view of the quality of these methods, without having dealt with its chemical basis.
6. To reconstruct the modern CO2 concentration of air icecores from Antarctica had been used. The presented reconstructions are obviously not accurate enough to show the several variations of carbon dioxide in northern hemisphere
The above is a summary from a pre-publication copy meant for discussion only. It is from a Google cache from a page at that is not currently available from the original site.

If these listed CO2 levels are indeed from accurate and reliable historical measurements, they represent a potentially serious embarassment for the IPCC.

Beck states that actual historical measurements of atmospheric CO2 levels should be given more credence than ice core air bubble analysis. If the IPCC has indeed swept these historical data under the rug in order to maintain its cover story of exponential CO2 rise--->exponential temperature rise, someone has a lot of 'splainin' to do.

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